"Danger and opportunity" in the long empty game of cotton market
"Danger and opportunity" in the long empty game of cotton market
In the near future, the market of bulk commodities has been surging with continuous price "diving" and cotton is no exception. Just when the domestic epidemic is basically stable, the global epidemic spread has cast a shadow on the market. How to deduce the price of cotton in the aftermarket? Some people say that "the epidemic is not scattered and the price is not affordable".
The author believes that this crisis is undoubtedly a great good for the majority of investors, because only in such a major event, commodity prices (including cotton) can be so low, so there is no need to panic excessively. Before the festival, Zheng cotton price was eager to try. The contract price of CF2009 had a strong upward trend of 15000 yuan / ton. However, under the "care" of the epidemic, cotton price continued to plunge, falling to 12650 yuan / ton at the lowest. In less than two weeks, cotton price dropped more than 2000 points, and the market volatility exceeded most people's expectations. At this time, some people panic to close positions, while others take the opportunity to jump into the rare "golden pit". It's also a crisis. Some people are in a hurry to avoid risks. Some people are bold to buy. In the same market, different analysis angles lead to different results.
No matter right or wrong, it's reasonable to observe the rise carefully. The foreign epidemic has turned around. The most serious ones, Korea, Japan and Italy, have raised the epidemic to the highest level, which means that the government and the whole people are paying the highest attention to the epidemic. Domestic epidemic prevention and control has proved that the epidemic can be controlled as long as the government pays enough attention and takes the most powerful prevention and control measures. It is also believed that due to the differences in political and cultural systems, it is difficult for foreign countries to take such strong prevention and control measures as China. The author believes that in the face of the critical moment of life and death, people's desire for life is the same, and can not underestimate or even doubt its prevention and control ability. Therefore, the impact of the epidemic need not be overstated.
Of course, the outbreak of the global epidemic will indeed have a negative impact on the cotton market, because the inhibition of consumption will inevitably lead to a downward price. In the market-oriented price operation mechanism dominated by supply and demand, supply and demand will inevitably re compete, resulting in a new equilibrium state, which will appear in a new price form. The price is stable, indicating that the new price has been recognized by the market, otherwise, it will continue to adjust until stable.
Before the outbreak, the contract price of CF2009 basically fluctuated around 14000 yuan / ton. Now affected by the outbreak, the price has dropped to about 13000 yuan / ton. It can be seen that in the short term, the downward price promotes the supply and demand of cotton market to reach a new equilibrium. But how long can this transient equilibrium last? Before the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, cotton prices fluctuated around 16000 yuan / ton. After the outbreak of the financial crisis, cotton prices fell to a low of 10080 yuan / ton at that time, and it took nearly 8 months for cotton prices to fall by 6000 yuan. Then cotton price recovered to 13000 yuan / ton for 5 months (up about 3000 yuan), and recovered to 16000 yuan / ton for nearly one year (up about 6000 yuan). This shows that in the face of such a serious global economic crisis, cotton prices are at the bottom for a limited time.
This time, the cotton price basically did not continue to repeat after falling, and directly rebounded and rose. Of course, on the one hand, governments of all countries have introduced interest rate reduction policies to save the market by "releasing water"; on the other hand, in view of the previous experience and laws, price return is a matter of time, and there is no need to worry too much. Earlier, people kept shouting that the price of cotton could reach 11000 yuan / ton, and they were desperate to copy the bottom, but the market just didn't give opportunities. The reason is very simple, both sides of the long and short are playing games. Once the public has reached a consensus on the original low price goods, the market tends to move in the opposite direction. The 28 law tells us that the truth is often in the hands of a few people.
To sum up, the momentum of cotton price decline has been weakened, and the rising force is increasing. Of course, in the short term, due to demand constraints, the price will fluctuate repeatedly, but the author believes that the cycle will be extended, and the future cotton price can be expected.
