Textile industrial news

In the Spring Festival of 2020, no one expected the outbreak to be so violent and unexpected. Even masks became scarce. In order to cope with this sudden epidemic disaster, the whole country, together with the whole nation, has made concerted efforts to fight this battle. Unprecedented strict prevention and control measures, such as city closure and shutdown, have once again shown the hope of overcoming the epidemic as soon as possible. The time for enterprises to return to work is also approaching.

Does the epidemic have a certain impact on the national economy, and how much will it affect? Relevant experts predict that if the prevention and control is timely and effective, the duration of the epidemic is relatively short, and the impact on the economy is mainly limited to the first quarter. It is estimated that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of the country will be 4%, and the annual GDP average will remain at about 5.2%. In 2020, China's economy is still hard to get rid of the shadow of downward pressure.

Under the pressure of macro-economy, what is the living situation of China's cotton textile industry? Just as CPI and PPI index represent the hot and cold of economic operation, the change of cotton price can also reflect the real situation of China's cotton textile industry operation. In 2020, the cotton price started disadvantageous. When Zheng cotton's 2009 contract price was about to go up 15000 yuan / ton, the epidemic was like an animal attack, and the market was in a mess. With the continuous spread of the epidemic, market panic continues to intensify, and the main contract price repeatedly hit new lows. The market is so cruel and greedy that it will never deliver the carbon in the snow, but only boost the momentum. Under the influence of such factors as increasing the collection and storage capacity of zhongchu cotton, the market has been temporarily stabilized.

Before and after the Spring Festival, the root cause of cotton price suffering Waterloo lies in the epidemic situation, which leads to the shutdown of cotton textile enterprises, the stagnation of procurement and the reduction of demand. The longer the suspension period, the greater the impact on the textile enterprises, in turn, the greater the negative impact on cotton prices. It is understood that the positive factors affecting cotton price before the festival are more than the negative factors. As long as there is no "black swan" event, cotton price should be stable at the normal price level. But Murphy's law tells us that the more worried things are, the more they will happen.

As the resumption date approaches, Hubei Province and even Wuhan, the worst hit City, may continue to face difficulties. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2019, the GDP of Hubei Province reached 4.58 trillion yuan, while the national GDP reached 99.08 trillion yuan in the same period, accounting for 4.6% of the GDP of Hubei Province, which has limited impact on the national economy.

Looking at the proportion of textile market, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to December 2018, the cumulative output of China's yarn industry was 29.76 million tons, down 0.2% from last year, of which the output of Hubei Province was 2.9647 million tons, ranking fifth in the country, accounting for 9.96%. No matter from the perspective of the national economic aggregate or the proportion of yarn production, the proportion of Hubei Province is relatively small. As a disaster area of the epidemic, its impact on the whole country is limited.

Although the epidemic has also affected production nationwide, the impact of the epidemic in other regions of the country is relatively weaker than that in Hubei Province, so cotton textile enterprises in other regions are actively preparing to return to work at a time when Hubei province continues to face difficulties. According to a survey by China cotton. Com, Nanyang City, Henan Province has made it clear that the start date of textile enterprises is February 17.

The enterprise said that the epidemic had not yet broken out before the festival, the downstream orders were sufficient, and the enterprise production could not catch up with the customer's order speed, because after the outbreak of the epidemic, the production stopped in an all-round way, and the cotton price also fell sharply. In the future, under the expectation of the recovery of downstream demand, the cotton price still has some room to rise.

According to the analysis of industry experts, the impact of the epidemic on the national economy and even the cotton and textile industry may be greater than that during the SARS period, because China just joined the WTO during the SARS period, the demographic dividend was released, and the economy maintained rapid growth, and now there is a lot of pressure to maintain "6". In addition, in recent years, affected by financial deleveraging, Sino-US trade friction, the epidemic is even worse for enterprises. Therefore, it is necessary for all industrial personages to treat cotton price trend calmly. Of course, at this stage, the cotton price has been in a relatively low position, the short-term down space will not be large, of course, the rise space is limited.

The final impact of the epidemic on the cotton textile industry cannot be concluded too early. What trend will cotton prices take after the epidemic, and what new hype points will emerge around cotton prices are all topics of concern to the industry. China cotton net will also continue to track and report on relevant issues.